Sideshow Mick's Last Gleaming

Qualifying Final 1 - Collingwood -v- West Coast

Krusty old Eddie is now so close to bumping off his old mate, Sideshow Mick. But Mick wants to go out with one last bang, so looks to the big (air) show to do so... the finals. He has already been on the Tyrano-Vision, talking about how he doesn't feel the spark for 2012 at Collingwood, and that agreements may have been made under duress (sure to get any employer running). Now to play out the last act... Sideshow Mick v West Coast Eagles, with Bart Buckley waiting in the wings.

1. Collingwood
The 'Elgin Marbles' of the AFL. Slightly dusty. Slightly broken. Have been around forever. Removed form their former home to the 'Bank Centre' (formerly 'Japanese Car Centre') by those hanging on to the dreams of former empire, with 'new money'. If only they were back at their home.

The premiership is theirs to lose in 2011, and maybe 2012 as well. Strong form at the G, with the only chinks in the armor exposed by Geelong. Might be worried again by then, or the Swans (purely as they choke games). Can't see the Hawks or anyone else getting past them.


2. West Coast
And speaking of 'new money', the very AFL example of flaunting it. Back into the finals after being the best playing list to finish last since... for ever?
And what of the best ruck combo in the land... Can the Cox / Naitanui pair make any dent in the finals. No doubts on Cox as hes proven, but will NicNat continue to be the free-spirited player of week-to-week football, or does stage-fright beckon.

West Coast of course strong at home (barring excusing an early season Sydney loss), but the away form is simply rotten... though we are happy they bumped off the Blue Filth.
With the weather the way it is and the Eagles having a reputation (deserved?) of being dry-track bullies... what looked a good match-up last week may be a train wreck now.


Verdict:
Well... its the maggot-bags for mine. Has to be.
I also have a suspicion the Wet Toast might tank it, knowing a home final next week will give them a chance to re-load and go again.

Friday Night 'Bloke-buster' (...a.k.a. "Who Wants a Grand Final Shot?")

Qualifying Final 2 - Geelong -v- Hawthorn

So, its de-ja-vu all over again (thanks Yogi) as we see the Cats v Hawks again go at it in the 'mental showdown' QF. Read that how you want... 

 - mental:  as in they will be not holding back and charging in as if there is no tomorrow, or

 - mental:  as in psychological. Will Geelong hold their promise to not lose to Hawthorn again, or will the Hawks break the nexus and get a W.

One thing most people say (yeah... unsubstantiated guff!) is that the winner will go through the to Grand Final. Expect this to be fiercest final of the weekend.

1. Geelong
So at one stage during the season, I said that Geelong were 'virtually invincible', and any objective supporter would have thought that was a fair call too. At that stage they were undefeated, able to win anywhere, against anyone, and even come home to get the close ones.
And then of course, they beat Collingwood, the supposed indestructible team of 2011. Suddenly, people remembered that the team now without a coach or Brownlow Medal winner were still a big chance for the flag. A big chance!

Great form all year by Geelong, bar three losses near then end. Picked up all the finalist scalps that could be considered genuine Premiership contenders. Also were able to work a win when close... mentally tough set of blokes.
You would also think the late season losses were 'good to get out of the way', and would 're-focus' them. Either that, or the first signs the wheels were falling off.


2. Hawthorn
Steady and consistent all year, possibly underrated as well. Done very well to pull through without really much tall down the back (hoping you are the same).
Kids look good too... Puopolo, Bruest, Itzhak Shmith. Finals ready kiddies? Lets see.

Twice beaten by Geelong in close ones, and done over by the Wobblers. Is there any way for them to overcome that and grind a win? If it is a close one, will they be strong enough to push it over the line?


Verdict:
Close. Hard. Tough. Geelong by the cats-whisker for me... but its no lock. If Hawthorn are mentally tough, this is the day to show it.
Could even be a draw decided in extra time.

Of Bubbles and Bloods

Elimination Final 2 - St. Kilda -v- Sydney

What was once the 'Lakeside Derby' in now ...the 'St. Kilda to Kings Cross Cup'. Against the Ess-Carl Eliminator, this one is quiet and almost ignored.

A good effort by Longmire to keep the team up to a finals level. Will it really be Ross Lyon's last game as St. Kilda coach...? What money is there being offered to go to the Dees...? 

Does anyone in Sydney know the Swans are in the finals?

Is Seaford really in Melbourne? 

1. St. Kilda
The 'Aints... the poor old 'Aints. If the 2010 Grand Final had have had another 2 minutes, they could have their second flag. But it didn't, and they don't. All they got from the replay was a smacking.
And then there was the 'off field' dramas. The 'bubble' was burst over summer, and the 'Aints were gone. The early season cemented that thought, with 1 win and 1 draw from 7 games... but somehow they stuck it out. Hayes-less, with Riewoldt patchy and Goddard looking like he would rather be elsewhere (Try GWS), they still came back and snuck in to the finals.

Against other top 8 teams, they have the worst record... 2 wins and 8 losses. Beating Carlton maybe helpful, but did the Filth really want to win that one? Maybe... maybe not. They don't even have a good indoor record either (1 win, 3 losses). Overall it doesn't look good, but they have experienced finals players so should make a good fist of it.


2. Sydney
The romance of the Bloods continues. Seemingly in the finals forever (...well, 13 times in the last 16 seasons) and still largely ignored by the people of Sydney. They somehow work some magic and maintain a playing list that pushes them to September. Dour and perhaps the least exciting team in this years 8, but none the less still capable on the day of grinding out a win.

The highlight of the form line is the away win to Geelong. Also at the back half of the year they have had some good wins and close losses .Also equally capable of winning outdoors and on the road. They have only minimal M.C.G. experience which only comes into play later. This first game at Docklands, against the Saints they had beaten a few weeks back.
My tip for the team not in the top 3 to give the finals the biggest shake.  


Verdict:
I get that feeling that the Bloods will push this - and win. Call me an old softy, but the Swans recent off-field tragedy could be the wake-up call.

Ratten Out Of The Bag

Elimination Final 1 - Carlton -v- Essendon

This First Elimination Final is getting plenty of media cover, as you would expect wit being played between these two big clubs.. All that talk of rivalries etc... yeah, well the airwaves need content, so off you go and fill that dead air.

Also a fair bit of talk about a Carlton loss being the end of Brett Ratten. Maybe, but why would you? Steady progression at Princes Park... no alarms yet. Really, he is not Robert Walls and Essendon are not the Brisbane Bears of 1989.

1. Carlton
Much like their former President, Carlton in a different age were once the ruthless corporate villian of the AFL, cashed up, full of bravado and bluster, and constantly raiding the finals.
In 2011, they are also like their former president... still with plenty of fervour, but lacking bite and credibility... the AFL's grumpy old men hankering for a return to the glory days of yesteryear.

Carlton's form on the run in is patchy at best, with only a recent win v Essendon to hang their hat on. Form is a bit unbalanced, with 3 wins and 6 losses (+1 draw) v top 8 teams. Also, only 1 win at the 'G (and 3 other outdoor losses). Also they did not play at Subiaco or Sydney, so have no form on the road (which may come into play in week two of the finals.


2. Essendon
The wonderful 'Same Olds' of Essendon... the AFL's middle-aged, middle-class, Sunday church-going, weekly lawn-mowing fraternity of 'nice' folk. The Windy Hill White-breads shocked the AFL last year by sacking a coach, but of course they waited patiently until seasons end, lest they cause upset. And true to form retuned to an old favourite as their new coach a new coach. Just like on old man returning to the lolly jar for a toffee.
By the way, did they really get a new coach or a cardboard cut-out...? I really can't tell.

Essendon, as you would expect from an eight place finish, should be carrying the worst form. But the win against Geelong, would be giving their supporters hope of a good campaign.
Credit to Essendon, 4 wins (+1 draw) vs top 8'ers. But reality check time... you got the 'Aints at the start of the year when they had a shocking start, and picked up close wins v West Coast and Sydney (very close). Another problem is the inability to win away from the Docklands. All year. Dons also have not won away at Sydney or Perth, which should be a worry if they pinch this one.


Verdict:
The Same-Olds do get into gear for these type of games..., but I think it should be a win to the Blue Filth... unfortunately.

Eight Teams Out - Redux

With the finals now on for young and old, there is so much 'he-said, she-said' on the air now as to how they will play out. With that in mind, a short review of the past is in order to see who has the mental edge going in.

Re-run the games that mattered.

Top 8 Fixture - click to enlarge

With no disrespect to the bottom 8 teams, lets chuck out any games the top 8 have played against them, and re-work the season into games that only those in the top 8 played. This then gives all the results as per the (clickable) table at right.

This reduces the games of significance down to 39, with a few teams having played other top 8 teams 11 times, and others as little as 8 games. This is purely a function of the AFL draw and its obvious problem of not being able to schedule all teams to play each other home and away.



Re-work the ladder to reflect head-to-head form.
The current 8 lists out as below (PS: AFL, when did Geelong become Geelong Cats...?);

Courtesy: AFL website

Re-working the 8 to count only those games played amongst themselves yields the below;

Adjusted 8: only games between top 8 finishers

The above is an interesting shift in thinking about the 8, with a boost to Essendon and Sydney over Carlton, West Coast and St. Kilda.

Re-work that to compensate for 'games played'.
The above though is still not a fair representation as there is an imbalance in the games played (i.e. Essendon have had 4 wins from 11 tries vs. West coast 3 wins from 8 opportunities). To re-dress that, we pull out the old AFL favourite 'match ratio'. This also boosts Sydney's stocks, as well as reinforcing that Carlton and St. Kilda have little form against other top 8 teams.

Adjusted 8: only games between top 8 finishers, factoring for 'match ratio'

But, which ever way you cut it... the premiership is still Collingwood's to lose, with the only true outside chances to be the Cats and the Hawks. You should also be wary of West Coast and Sydney, as if they get a home final, they could go further than most would credit.

In the next day or so, I will look at the form of each team in the 8 on a head-to-head basis.