18 Into 22 Won't Fit

The below is a bit of a rambling run through of how an 18 team competition can work inside a 22 game season. It is designed to create a level of fairness and transparency in its structure and operation, but at the same time offer some flexibility to schedule 'block-busters' on key dates.
The finals system the AFL has now remains the same, but there is a fine-tuning of how teams are promoted into the finals, as you would expect with a 3 conference system and 8 team finals series.
It has also been designed to re-cycle teams into different conferences in the following year to put aside any fears of strong v weak conferences developing over time, or any notion of a promotion / relegation system.

The sections below cover specific point on how it work , or just read through.
1. The Opportunity for Change.           [published 8 Sep 2011]
2. Making 3 Conferences.                    [published 13 Sep 2011]
3. The 22 Round Draw.                       [published 16 Sept 2011]
4. Conferences and Results.                [published 28 Sept and 7 Oct on these posts here and here]


I would also encourage you to comment, either with advice or constructive criticism, as I think input from others is vital in fine-tuning the process.
I am also very aware that the AFL's current philosophy is to maximise crowds, revenue and television viewing audience (i.e. ratings, i.e. revenue generation for its 'broadcast partners') and the below proposal does detract from that goal.
What the below does do is challenge the AFL. They are now clearly the biggest sport in Australia, and able to generate enough wealth and media interest to dominate the Australian market. They also passionately proclaim the game is clean of performance enhancing drugs, or the problem of result-affecting behavior, be that tanking, throwing games, or spot-fixing. They also acknowledge the draw for each season is 'fixed' in giving some teams premium broadcast slots and opportunities to play 'block-buster' games and therefore increase revenue.
The challenge for the AFL, now that it is emminently wealthy and dominating of the sports landscape, is to apply the sense of fairness it expects of its players and officials onto itself, and its scheduling.


1. The Opportunity for Change.

In 2012, the AFL will expand to 18 teams with the introduction of the Greater Western Sydney Giants Football Club (GWS). This has already precipitated the calls that an already uneven draw will be further compromised and the 'balance' that the AFL competition now has will be lost.
Most football followers (from a few weeks of listening to SEN talk-back radio) are sure that the best thing for the competition is to have each team play against the others twice, in the classic 'home and away' format. 18 teams makes this difficult, as that would create 34 rounds. And 34 rounds wont fit into the traditional 22 round season.
So what can be done to create a form of evenness?


1. Fit the 34 home and away games into 22 rounds.
Possible? Well, with 22 'rounds' covering 154 days of football, you could squeeze games, but each game would be off a 4-5 day game break. Not really feasible with the playing lists and physical demands that AFL has. Though it is OK for less physically demanding sports such as baseball and basketball (and even soccer, on  occasion).
:: Not going to happen.


2. Let each team play each other once.
Balanced enough, but only a 17 week season. The other 5 games to complete a 22 round season (and generate more megabucks, provide the broadcasters football public with more matches) would need to be aranged... but how?

5 more games for groups of 6 teams, against each other? i.e. top 6 clubs by ladder position to play each other, mid 6, etc?
You would think this is another mechanism for imblance.

:: Possible and not to dis-similar to what is happening now (if you consider changing the definition of top club  from 'by ladder position' to 'potential to draw revenue'). 

3. Create 2 'Conferences' of 9 teams each.
The easiest way of fitting the concept of 'home and away' into a season is to create 2 x 9 team conferences, right? ...maybe.
So lets see how it plays out, with a very simple premise...
  a) Create two conferences
From the previous season you add in,
Conference A:    1st, 3rd, 5th etc... down to 17th.
Conference B:    2nd, 4th, 6th etc... down to 18th.

  b) Devise a home and away schedule where each team plays against teams from the same conference home and away.
This makes another 16 game per team season as each team plays against 8 others, twice (8 x 2). It also creates an 18 week season, as you schedule two 9 team conferences each week, which is 4 games + 1 team with a bye per conference (oh no, the dreaded bye!).

As its an 18 week season, fitting in 4 matches more (to complete 22 rounds) would also need to be done. More complex here because you could play them inside the same conference, or in an inter-conference mode.



4. Create 3 'Conferences' of 6 teams each.
The most complex for the general public to comprehend, but the most elegant solution. It yields a very simple 22 game season, no byes, no need to schedule additional matches that destroy the balance of home and away etc.
Here is how it works.

  a) Create three conferences
From the previous season you add in,
Conference A:    1st, 4th, 7th, etc... down to 16th.
Conference B:    2nd, 5th, 8th, etc... down to 17th.
Conference C:    3rd, 6th, 9th, etc... down to 18th.

  b) Devise a home and away schedule where each team plays against teams from the same pool home and away.
This is therefore a 10 game per team season as each team plays against 5 other twice (5 x 2), played only 'inside' the same conference.

  c) An additional 12 rounds are then played by scheduling each team to play teams in other conferences in an inter-conference system
This therefore completes a 22 round and 22 week season, no byes and very balanced as each team gets to play each other in conference twice, and out of conference once.

  d) As to arranging finalists... quite simple. Each conference winner is guaranteed a finals slot (that's 3 clubs). The next two positions from each conference (6 teams) are given 5 'wild card' slots. If your record is good enough, you progress (by matches won and percentage). The least best of those 6 clubs misses out.
That yields a finals series of 8 clubs, which then proceeds as per the current system.

  e) At the end of the season, a combined ladder of all 18 clubs is then drawn up (arranged by matches won and percentage, as now), and that feeds back into a) above, to create new conferences for the next season. This is done to refresh the conferences and prevent them from becoming good, better, best, or rich, poor, poor etc. Also helps in distributing interstate travel etc.


All that works like a charm... but the hurdle to implementing this is purely in the hearts and minds of the AFL and some clubs and supporters who currently wish to dominate the football landscape with guaranteed blockbusters.

In the coming weeks, I will include some examples and tables demonstrating how it works.


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2. Making 3 conferences.

To split the 18 teams into 3 conferences, a simple system based in the previous years ladder (in the example at here it is the 2011 ladder at the end of the home and away season).

From the previous season you add in,
 Conference A:    1st, 4th, 7th, etc... down to 16th.
 Conference B:    2nd, 5th, 8th, etc... down to 17th.
 Conference C:    3rd, 6th, 9th, etc... down to 18th.

Applying this for season 2012 using the 2011 ladder, you get the three groups as per right.

For ease of discussion (in the media, pub etc), you could give each conference a name, as I have done using three great and influential figures from the three key football states: Barassi, Farmer and Robran.

Following the logic from before, teams play in conferences home and away, so there are two 'blockbuster' games in the set-up at right as here;
Carlton -v- Essendon
Essendon -v- Geelong
Geelong -v- Carlton

Again, as before, inter-conferences matches are 1 per season, leaving other 'blockbusters' to be played once;
Adelaide -v- Port Adelaide (The Showdown)
West Coast -v- Fremantle (The Derby)
Brisbane -v- Gold Coast (The Q-Clash) and
Sydney -v- GWS (The Sydney Shitfight),
as well as only one Essendon -v- Collingwood game (Anzac Day, anyone?).

Travel requirements for Melbourne-based clubs are also distributed based on the previous seasons ladder and how clubs fall into each conference. Applied as per right, Collingwood and Melbourne (in Barassi conference) must go to Perth, Sydney and Adelaide once each. The teams in Farmer conference go to Perth, Adelaide, and Gold Coast once each, and the teams in Robran conference go to Sydney(or Canberra) and Brisbane once each.

* Note: this is at a minimum, and other interstate games can be added in during inter-conference games.


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3. The 22 Round Draw.

As mentioned earlier, creating the draw is simple and clear for clubs and supporters to understand.

Click to expand

Each team plays within its conference home and away, which for 6 team conferences means 5 home games and 5 away games (total of 10). Each team also plays teams outside its conference once each, so for 6 team conferences, that is another 12 games. This creates a nice 22 game season.

The draw to the right (clickable) is set as an example only. Please don't worry if any team has too many / not enough home games, travel etc. That issue can be solved by folk who have more time to work through that issue (and also get paid for it).

The basics of the draw are that each team and conference fit into a system to allocate games as above... again, simple and transparent.
If AFL HQ wish to move about the games to fit particular days of the year, that can be done as well. Given the Anzac Day 'tradition', and the desire of clubs to play a particular team on the opening round (...etc), it would seem that these games would be most likely to get shuffled about.

For me, I would set the draw (at a minimum) to end with games played inside each conference, with the inter-conference games in the middle. The logic behind that is that the conference winners get a guaranteed finals slot, so the final 5 weeks should see strong competition for a finals berth amongst each other.



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