The Grand Final We Had To Have *1

When I hear the terms 'Collingwood' and 'Grand Final', I always think.... "Gran Sale, Gran Sale, Gran Sale"

... or "Megalo Megalo Megalo Xepoulima", or "Grande Svendita".... or whatever. Because when I was a lad, 'Collingwood supporter' was a euphemism for 'multicultural'.

All my Greek and Yugoslav*2 mates were Wobblers (with the Italians firmly of the Blue Filth faith, of course).

Anyway...

As I have said before, the 2011 Premiership is Collingwood's to lose. Best team all year, depth of talent, depth of pockets. Unbackable favorites during the season, at least until September, they have the building blocks to go back to back*3. 

The only problems for the Wobblers have been...

1) being beaten by Geelong twice this season, once in a crunch close game, and the other a blow-out... Value of that second game? Probably nil if your a Wobbler fan, probably lots as a Hand-bagger.

Me, as an independant... any win is good, and one for the psychological bank.

It's there in the back of everyone's minds - They. Got. Smashed!

2) An apparent drop-off in the late season... have they been worked out as The Age says? Maybe, and would be interesting too. Football and these 'structures' everyone talks about. At the end of the day, score more than them and win. Simple.

3) Last week, the Wobblers got beat-up by the Dawks, while the Hand-baggers had a reasonably easy game against the Weagles*4. If fitness levels and bums-on-the-ground numbers are weighted one way or the other in the 3rd quarter, that might be all she wrote.

Its not an easy one to pick.

- Well, we would love the Wobblers to get done. So would most of the football world.

- It would also be good for the philosopher Malthouse to go out on a win... a consistently good coach and former Tiger.

- If the Wobblers win, they will go down in history as 'those flogs that ditched a back-to-back premiership coach'... well worth writing to the papers about. Nice!

- Might be fun times if Mick gets a win, and Bucks brings nothing to the club for the next 5 years... just a bit of crystal ball schadenfraude-ing.

- Would also be good for the Scott-boy (I never know which one he is) and Geelong to prove one coach and one Browlow medalist do not a club make. You know... strength of team, and all that. 

So, time to put them on the block... lets call it.

Heart - Geelong ... and I don't really know why. 

Head - Wobblers or Hand-baggers... too close to call, but I still lean to Geelong.

Happy to hear your comments, either in the comments section here, or via twitter @TKYC.

... AND, no correspondence will be entered into with 'Monday's Experts'. Tell me now, or blow it out your ring-piece.




*1   With apologies to Precious Paul J Keating.

*2   Gen-Y'ers, ask your Mum and Dad about Yugoslavia.
*3   In some ways, Collingwood going back-to-back is a better thought than Collingwood supporters going at it in the-beast-with-two-backs mode... if you get my drift... Are you with me?
*4   So I'm told by my office non-serious football followers... never saw, heard or read anything about those games. The joys of a great week in FNQ!

4a. How Could Conferences Work in Practice.

I have written quite a bit over here ("18 Into 22 Wont Fit") about an AFL draw that tries to balance out the playing year to 22 rounds, with teams playing other teams at least once (and 5 other teams at least twice) inside a conference system. That post has grown so long that it might be easier to review how it works with results in a 'trial' on a separate blog post or two (or more).

Case 1:
Conferences and Results:
So now we have our conferences split and the draw organised, here is how the actual conferences work in practice.

I have used excels random number generator to determine each game and score line. The Micrsoft Excel function =RANDBETWEEN(40,150) was used to generate team scores between 40pts and 150pts*, which were plugged in to each game to generate wins, draws and losses.

The conferences, after a full (random) season, then produced the ladders as below, giving conference championships to West Coast, Geelong, and St. Kilda (above the solid red line).

It should be worth noting that in this first example, I have chosen a very basic set of results, where all the conference winners are also the best three teams of the season. This is done to highlight what 'should' happen using this system. I will follow-up later with posts on other possible scenarios as well.

Allocating teams from three conferences into eight finals slots creates issues. For example, the top 3 teams from each conference only gives 9 teams, which is one to many.

I would propose the conference champions get automatic entry into the finals as the first three seeds. The next three teams in each conference (below the solid red line and above the dotted red line) are 'wild card' teams for the finals, with the best 5 of those 9 teams gaining a finals spot.

I have run many iterations with results on this, and have found that on some rare occasions, a fourth placed team in a conference can have;
   a) a good enough record to be in a traditional finals 8, and
   b) a better record than 2nd or 3rd placed team in other conferences.
...I may even run more iterations to find one and then add it to the blog.

So working with the best 5 from the 3 groups of 2nd to 4th, there are finals berths for
- Melbourne and Collingwood;
- Adelaide, and;
- Hawthorn and Richmond.

Missing out would be Port Adelaide; Carlton and Essendon; and Brisbane, as they have the worst record.


Into The Finals:
In this proposal, all the conference winners are guaranteed a final, and I would also give them a double chance slot (along with the best second-placed team). I think it is important to reward conference champions in this way as it helps give that title meaning and a value to strive for.

So in the example, the top four finalists (with the double chance) would be;
  QF 1: West Coast -v- Melbourne
[i.e. best performed conference winner -v- best 'wild-card' team (2nd place finisher in all conferences)].
  QF 2: St. Kilda -v- Geelong
[i.e. second best performed conference winner -v- 3rd best conference winner].

For the other four finalists, I would propose that the 9 teams positioned 2nd to 4th in each conference (less the best 2nd place finisher) are then simply ranked by points and percentage, then allocated an Elimination Finals berth (or not finals ranked). This would then rank the remaining finalists from those 9 teams as below:
   Coll. (48points, 101%), Hawt. (48p, 100%), Rich (44p, 102%), Adel. (44p, 100%), 

So using this system, the two Elimination Finalists would then be;
  EF 1: Hawthorn -v- Richmond
[i.e. 3rd best 'wild-card' ranked team -v- 4th best 'wild-card' ranked team].
  EF 2: Collingwood -v- Adelaide
[i.e. 2nd best 'wild-card' ranked team -v- 5th best 'wild-card' ranked team].


Setting Up The Next Season:
To set up the next seasons conferences**, I would merge the three conferences back into a single (traditional) AFL ladder as at left, and then separate the teams based on that.


Using the combined ladder completed after the home and away season means the next seasons conferences are based on a balanced results card... i.e two games vs teams from the same conference, and one game vs all other teams. I would not advocate incorporating the results from finals, as they may create imbalance.

So from the left, the next seasons' conferences get built again as per the process;
 - 1st, 4th, 7th, 10th, 13th and 16th.
 - 2nd, 5th, 8th, 11th, 14th, and 17th.
 - 3rd, 6th, 9th, 12th, 15th, and 18th.





This creates the new seasons conferences as at right. In this example, there has been
 a) some shuffling of teams into new Conferences,
[i.e. Richmond, Carlton, move into the Barassi Conference from other conferences].

 b) stasis of teams in the same conferences.
[i.e. Melbourne Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and West Coast have stayed in the Barassi conference, but now has different teams to play against home and away].

Worth noting in this example, there is not as much mixing of teams as there could be. But that is just the nature of the system being reliant on previous seasons ladder position. Indeed there could even be a case where there was no change year-on-year.



* The end points of 40 and 150 are reached as an indication point from calculations on all the scores of AFL games from 2000 to 2011. The average score over that period is 95pts, and +/- 2 standard deviations of that in 38 to 151. I have not added any 'home ground advantage' as I have not adjusted the draw to balance for that. As before, it can be done, but I just haven't the time to go through and complete it. For the record, there is an average 10 point advantage as the home team over that same period.


** As before, in the "18 Into 22 Wont Fit" post, I advocate a season-on-season re-organising of conferences. This is both a way of distributing games among teams (keeping each season fresh and distinct from others before), as well as to dissipate any concerns of either 'strong conferences / weak conferences' or of developing a 'tiered, promotion/relegation' system. If strong conferences or promotion/relegation systems were introduced, I fear it would mark the beginning of the end for some clubs. 

Who's Got A Semi?

So I heard David Parkin talk up Carlton to win in Subiaco because they "have great form over there against West Coast". At least, I think that is a direct quote from SEN during the week.

So, do they have any form (in corresponding games ...i.e. at home)?


Semi Final 2 - West Coast -v- Carlton

Looking at the last 5 years, its 2-1 to Carlton. Can we take anything from this?

Well in 2010, Carlton won by 4 goals. In the middle of West Coast’s run of 13 losses from 14 games. 1 week after beating Essendon (did they get ahead of themselves?) and 1 week before another Derby (did they think ahead too much?)

The other two games (1W -1L) were in 2007 and ’08… take what you can from those games when a good deal of players, staff and the game itself would have changed.

Here are a few changes...
Carlton: 10 players were involved in the 2007 and 2011 games... Betts, Carrazzo, Gibbs, Houlihan, Murphy, Russell, Scotland, Simpson, Thornton, Walker.
West Coast: 9 players were involved in the 2007 and 2011 games... - Cox, Embley, Glass, Hurn, Kerr, Lynch, Priddis, Rosa, Selwood.
...ALSO: Judd and Kennedy also played twice, but for different teams!
...AND: Carlton were also under the guidance of D. Pagan in 2007 as well.

With the all that, the only good for is recent form, and Carlton lost the Etihad game this year. Parkin... I think there is little in it, other than inspiration for a blog post.
I think the Toasters are different proposition in 2011 than at any time in the last 5 years, so I think at home they should win. Then there is the Judd factor.

Semi Final 1 - Hawthorn -v- Sydney

Hawks v Sydney at the MCG, its 3-1 for the Dawks. Interestingly, Swannies can get past 80 points.

...and the Swans lost to Richmond at the 'G too. But some think that is the catalyst to their late season revival. Could be.
And Hawthorn got them in Sydney too, by 46 points (Sydney only scored 60pts).

Tough one... I think if Buddy plays, the Dawks get up. Without him, the Swans might get home but the Dawks still look likely.
Or maybe I just go with the heart, not the head...
Go Bloods! *

* Disclaimer: Author is a Richmond F.C. member, which has no bearing on this at all. Author's dad is a South man from way back... so now you know.

Sideshow Mick's Last Gleaming

Qualifying Final 1 - Collingwood -v- West Coast

Krusty old Eddie is now so close to bumping off his old mate, Sideshow Mick. But Mick wants to go out with one last bang, so looks to the big (air) show to do so... the finals. He has already been on the Tyrano-Vision, talking about how he doesn't feel the spark for 2012 at Collingwood, and that agreements may have been made under duress (sure to get any employer running). Now to play out the last act... Sideshow Mick v West Coast Eagles, with Bart Buckley waiting in the wings.

1. Collingwood
The 'Elgin Marbles' of the AFL. Slightly dusty. Slightly broken. Have been around forever. Removed form their former home to the 'Bank Centre' (formerly 'Japanese Car Centre') by those hanging on to the dreams of former empire, with 'new money'. If only they were back at their home.

The premiership is theirs to lose in 2011, and maybe 2012 as well. Strong form at the G, with the only chinks in the armor exposed by Geelong. Might be worried again by then, or the Swans (purely as they choke games). Can't see the Hawks or anyone else getting past them.


2. West Coast
And speaking of 'new money', the very AFL example of flaunting it. Back into the finals after being the best playing list to finish last since... for ever?
And what of the best ruck combo in the land... Can the Cox / Naitanui pair make any dent in the finals. No doubts on Cox as hes proven, but will NicNat continue to be the free-spirited player of week-to-week football, or does stage-fright beckon.

West Coast of course strong at home (barring excusing an early season Sydney loss), but the away form is simply rotten... though we are happy they bumped off the Blue Filth.
With the weather the way it is and the Eagles having a reputation (deserved?) of being dry-track bullies... what looked a good match-up last week may be a train wreck now.


Verdict:
Well... its the maggot-bags for mine. Has to be.
I also have a suspicion the Wet Toast might tank it, knowing a home final next week will give them a chance to re-load and go again.

Friday Night 'Bloke-buster' (...a.k.a. "Who Wants a Grand Final Shot?")

Qualifying Final 2 - Geelong -v- Hawthorn

So, its de-ja-vu all over again (thanks Yogi) as we see the Cats v Hawks again go at it in the 'mental showdown' QF. Read that how you want... 

 - mental:  as in they will be not holding back and charging in as if there is no tomorrow, or

 - mental:  as in psychological. Will Geelong hold their promise to not lose to Hawthorn again, or will the Hawks break the nexus and get a W.

One thing most people say (yeah... unsubstantiated guff!) is that the winner will go through the to Grand Final. Expect this to be fiercest final of the weekend.

1. Geelong
So at one stage during the season, I said that Geelong were 'virtually invincible', and any objective supporter would have thought that was a fair call too. At that stage they were undefeated, able to win anywhere, against anyone, and even come home to get the close ones.
And then of course, they beat Collingwood, the supposed indestructible team of 2011. Suddenly, people remembered that the team now without a coach or Brownlow Medal winner were still a big chance for the flag. A big chance!

Great form all year by Geelong, bar three losses near then end. Picked up all the finalist scalps that could be considered genuine Premiership contenders. Also were able to work a win when close... mentally tough set of blokes.
You would also think the late season losses were 'good to get out of the way', and would 're-focus' them. Either that, or the first signs the wheels were falling off.


2. Hawthorn
Steady and consistent all year, possibly underrated as well. Done very well to pull through without really much tall down the back (hoping you are the same).
Kids look good too... Puopolo, Bruest, Itzhak Shmith. Finals ready kiddies? Lets see.

Twice beaten by Geelong in close ones, and done over by the Wobblers. Is there any way for them to overcome that and grind a win? If it is a close one, will they be strong enough to push it over the line?


Verdict:
Close. Hard. Tough. Geelong by the cats-whisker for me... but its no lock. If Hawthorn are mentally tough, this is the day to show it.
Could even be a draw decided in extra time.

Of Bubbles and Bloods

Elimination Final 2 - St. Kilda -v- Sydney

What was once the 'Lakeside Derby' in now ...the 'St. Kilda to Kings Cross Cup'. Against the Ess-Carl Eliminator, this one is quiet and almost ignored.

A good effort by Longmire to keep the team up to a finals level. Will it really be Ross Lyon's last game as St. Kilda coach...? What money is there being offered to go to the Dees...? 

Does anyone in Sydney know the Swans are in the finals?

Is Seaford really in Melbourne? 

1. St. Kilda
The 'Aints... the poor old 'Aints. If the 2010 Grand Final had have had another 2 minutes, they could have their second flag. But it didn't, and they don't. All they got from the replay was a smacking.
And then there was the 'off field' dramas. The 'bubble' was burst over summer, and the 'Aints were gone. The early season cemented that thought, with 1 win and 1 draw from 7 games... but somehow they stuck it out. Hayes-less, with Riewoldt patchy and Goddard looking like he would rather be elsewhere (Try GWS), they still came back and snuck in to the finals.

Against other top 8 teams, they have the worst record... 2 wins and 8 losses. Beating Carlton maybe helpful, but did the Filth really want to win that one? Maybe... maybe not. They don't even have a good indoor record either (1 win, 3 losses). Overall it doesn't look good, but they have experienced finals players so should make a good fist of it.


2. Sydney
The romance of the Bloods continues. Seemingly in the finals forever (...well, 13 times in the last 16 seasons) and still largely ignored by the people of Sydney. They somehow work some magic and maintain a playing list that pushes them to September. Dour and perhaps the least exciting team in this years 8, but none the less still capable on the day of grinding out a win.

The highlight of the form line is the away win to Geelong. Also at the back half of the year they have had some good wins and close losses .Also equally capable of winning outdoors and on the road. They have only minimal M.C.G. experience which only comes into play later. This first game at Docklands, against the Saints they had beaten a few weeks back.
My tip for the team not in the top 3 to give the finals the biggest shake.  


Verdict:
I get that feeling that the Bloods will push this - and win. Call me an old softy, but the Swans recent off-field tragedy could be the wake-up call.

Ratten Out Of The Bag

Elimination Final 1 - Carlton -v- Essendon

This First Elimination Final is getting plenty of media cover, as you would expect wit being played between these two big clubs.. All that talk of rivalries etc... yeah, well the airwaves need content, so off you go and fill that dead air.

Also a fair bit of talk about a Carlton loss being the end of Brett Ratten. Maybe, but why would you? Steady progression at Princes Park... no alarms yet. Really, he is not Robert Walls and Essendon are not the Brisbane Bears of 1989.

1. Carlton
Much like their former President, Carlton in a different age were once the ruthless corporate villian of the AFL, cashed up, full of bravado and bluster, and constantly raiding the finals.
In 2011, they are also like their former president... still with plenty of fervour, but lacking bite and credibility... the AFL's grumpy old men hankering for a return to the glory days of yesteryear.

Carlton's form on the run in is patchy at best, with only a recent win v Essendon to hang their hat on. Form is a bit unbalanced, with 3 wins and 6 losses (+1 draw) v top 8 teams. Also, only 1 win at the 'G (and 3 other outdoor losses). Also they did not play at Subiaco or Sydney, so have no form on the road (which may come into play in week two of the finals.


2. Essendon
The wonderful 'Same Olds' of Essendon... the AFL's middle-aged, middle-class, Sunday church-going, weekly lawn-mowing fraternity of 'nice' folk. The Windy Hill White-breads shocked the AFL last year by sacking a coach, but of course they waited patiently until seasons end, lest they cause upset. And true to form retuned to an old favourite as their new coach a new coach. Just like on old man returning to the lolly jar for a toffee.
By the way, did they really get a new coach or a cardboard cut-out...? I really can't tell.

Essendon, as you would expect from an eight place finish, should be carrying the worst form. But the win against Geelong, would be giving their supporters hope of a good campaign.
Credit to Essendon, 4 wins (+1 draw) vs top 8'ers. But reality check time... you got the 'Aints at the start of the year when they had a shocking start, and picked up close wins v West Coast and Sydney (very close). Another problem is the inability to win away from the Docklands. All year. Dons also have not won away at Sydney or Perth, which should be a worry if they pinch this one.


Verdict:
The Same-Olds do get into gear for these type of games..., but I think it should be a win to the Blue Filth... unfortunately.

Eight Teams Out - Redux

With the finals now on for young and old, there is so much 'he-said, she-said' on the air now as to how they will play out. With that in mind, a short review of the past is in order to see who has the mental edge going in.

Re-run the games that mattered.

Top 8 Fixture - click to enlarge

With no disrespect to the bottom 8 teams, lets chuck out any games the top 8 have played against them, and re-work the season into games that only those in the top 8 played. This then gives all the results as per the (clickable) table at right.

This reduces the games of significance down to 39, with a few teams having played other top 8 teams 11 times, and others as little as 8 games. This is purely a function of the AFL draw and its obvious problem of not being able to schedule all teams to play each other home and away.



Re-work the ladder to reflect head-to-head form.
The current 8 lists out as below (PS: AFL, when did Geelong become Geelong Cats...?);

Courtesy: AFL website

Re-working the 8 to count only those games played amongst themselves yields the below;

Adjusted 8: only games between top 8 finishers

The above is an interesting shift in thinking about the 8, with a boost to Essendon and Sydney over Carlton, West Coast and St. Kilda.

Re-work that to compensate for 'games played'.
The above though is still not a fair representation as there is an imbalance in the games played (i.e. Essendon have had 4 wins from 11 tries vs. West coast 3 wins from 8 opportunities). To re-dress that, we pull out the old AFL favourite 'match ratio'. This also boosts Sydney's stocks, as well as reinforcing that Carlton and St. Kilda have little form against other top 8 teams.

Adjusted 8: only games between top 8 finishers, factoring for 'match ratio'

But, which ever way you cut it... the premiership is still Collingwood's to lose, with the only true outside chances to be the Cats and the Hawks. You should also be wary of West Coast and Sydney, as if they get a home final, they could go further than most would credit.

In the next day or so, I will look at the form of each team in the 8 on a head-to-head basis.